Market Insight | Week 04

The containership market has entered 2026 on a subdued note, with activity easing ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year on 17 February, following a December demand spike driven by pre-holiday front-loading. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index has declined 7% w-o-w and versus the January-to-date average, yet remains above early December levels, supported by a combination of weather-related port delays, extended transit times, and higher freight levels negotiated earlier in the year, providing a firmer baseline. Meanwhile, the time charter market remains comparatively resilient and stable.
The Chinese New Year is a seasonal factor that significantly affects containership tonnage demand, as factories reduce output roughly two weeks before the holiday and workforce availability drops. While official public holidays span 8 days, logistics disruptions typically extend 3–5 weeks before and after the festivities, affecting the smooth operation of supply chains in China.
While seasonal elements continue to influence short-term trade flows, the sector’s underlying trends remain heavily shaped by geopolitical developments, with the timing of a return to normal Suez Canal transit volumes representing a key market variable. Operators are taking divergent approaches: some are cautiously resuming Red Sea transits, while others continue to avoid the region, diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. A hybrid strategy has also emerged, routing lower-value cargo via the Suez Canal while keeping higher-value shipments on alternative, safer routes. Overall, most transits still bypass the Red Sea, with BIMCO reporting a 60% reduction in early January compared with 3 years ago. Shipowners are largely adopting a wait-and-see approach, monitoring developments as security in the region seem to stabilize, however Houthis threatened with new attacks. Although transiting the Suez Canal offers operational benefits for the operators, shorter transit times, lower fuel consumption, and reduced GHG emissions, on a market level a significant increase in Suez traffic would also reduce ton-miles and expand available tonnage, exerting downward pressure on freight rates.
The heightened geopolitical risk, together with the trade frictions observed in 2025 and the subsequent rise of protectionist policies, has led to structural changes in the container shipping market, reshaping trade patterns and fostering the emergence of more regional trade routes. Chinese exports have increasingly been redirected from the United States to Europe and ASEAN markets, while intra-Asian container volumes have also strengthened. The rise of regional trade has prompted the wider adoption of hub-and-spoke operating models, concentrating cargo at strategically located central ports and redistributing it via feeder services to smaller connecting ports. The hub-and-spoke system offers multiple advantages, including increased schedule reliability, higher vessel utilization, and reduced transit times. Notably, the Gemini Cooperation (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) currently operates its vessels under this model, while the Premier Alliance (ONE, HMM, Yang Ming) has announced the restructuring of its service network to a hub-and-spoke system from April.
These amendments in trade flows combined with fleet demographics, has bolstered the feeder containership segment. Rising demand for feeder units, alongside an aging fleet, averaging 15.5 years versus 20-year average of 13 years, and with 33% of tonnage over 20 years old, drove a surge in newbuilding activity in 2025. A total of 206 feeder vessels were ordered, up from 118 in 2024, pushing the orderbook-to-fleet ratio from 4.9% to 9.6% year-on-year.
Overall, containership fleet is expected to grow in 2026 at a slower pace than in 2025, with a 5% increase versus 7% the previous year. Demolition activity in 2025 was subdued, with only 11 boxships (mostly small feeders) dismantled, compared with 58 in 2024 and 82 in 2023. On the demand side, trade is projected to rise 2.5% in teu volumes in 2026, down from 4% in 2025. However, the shift towards more short haul trade is estimated to reduce ton-miles marginally by 0.6% in 2026.
Given the above, the outlook for the containership market in 2026 points to notable freight pressures. The evolution of Suez Canal transit activity will be critical, as a potential gradual increase of transits could weigh on rates in a supply-driven market. Operators are assessing the evolving security conditions in Red Sea, while adjusting fleet deployment strategies in response to the structural transition toward more regional trade patterns.